Don't stop believin'
Arsenal, Man City, Aston Villa and Chelsea adopt the timeless anthem
When Journey penned the song, “Don’t stop believing”, it was not written with Arsenal’s Arteta or Man City’s Guardiola in mind. With 24 games to go, the Premier League title race has questions swirling about whether this will be the season that Arsenal will finally take the prize home after a serious drought. And then there are some wondering whether the inconsistent but lethal Pep Guardiola’s Man City can snatch it away from his padawan one more time. Of course, there is the chance that resurging Unai Emery’s Aston Villa or Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea can surprise the pundits and go on a run to pick up the title after a decade long absence from the top.
Fascinating as it is, both Arteta and Maresca have previously worked under the tutelage of Pep Guardiola at Man City. That tells you about the impressive legacy that Pep has built, coached and mentored.
Let’s look at these current top 4 teams vying for the title this year:
Arsenal: The Gunners are firing on all cylinders this year, and while they have given up a few points in surprising games, in general they appear to be the team to beat. The starting lineup looks solid as does their bench. There are some strikingly positive differences between this year’s Arteta team and prior years. For one, Arsenal have zero red cards so far this year (and among the fewest yellow cards) in the league, and this compared to the highest red card accumulation in the league last season (6). It is also very striking to see how Mikel Arteta is clearly showing more side line maturity during the games, and a little more poise and statesmanship in the press conferences compared to previous years.
Within the team, the attacking threats of Gyokeres, Eze, Saka and Trossard have an impressive 14 goals almost evenly split among them in 14 games. Their top scorer across all competitions, Mikel Merino is also an emerging threat despite starting only half their games in the Prem thus far. The back line that includes the dynamic duo of Gabriel and Saliba are a force to be reckoned with. Both of them being currently injured could pose a bit of a problem, but remains to be seen how quickly they will be back.
Arsenal also continue to be highly effective at set pieces, 12 of their 27 goals this season have been from set pieces, and while it would be better to see more open play goals from them, it remains to be seen if this set piece focus by them delivers the title. Overall, Arsenal seem like it may be their year and their title to lose if anything. But this is the Premier League and anything can happen.
Man City: Despite the stumbles of last season, player turnover due to retirements, and the stumbles of this season, Guardiola’s men are stubbornly sitting in second place patiently staring down Arsenal. Erling Haaland is playing in the best form of his young career and cannot be ignored by any team or pundit anymore. He is now leading the league’s golden boot race with 15 goals in 14 games and continuing to topple records like bowling pins. What’s impressive about his evolving game is the amount of times he has raced back to help and clear opposing offensive threats in addition to his prolific goal scoring results. Phil Foden is also coming back into his own with a nice pickup of four goals in the last two games.
Right now the problem Man City have is their leaky back line which has come into plain view during the recent games against Leeds and Fulham. They know they have to fix this. Overall though, Guardiola has clearly evolved his tactics on possession based, playing from the back type football into a modern game that is more direct at times than ever before in his managerial career. You can see Man City more comfortable in out of possession sequences more often that in prior years. One thing that Man City has going for them as well is their ability to go on a run of wins in the latter part of the season as they have done numerous times. It’s almost as if they use the first half of the season to settle in, clear out the kinks in their game to prepare for the second half. Not a bad characteristic for a team that continues to evolve. Don’t write them off yet for the title, but they know they have work to do.
Aston Villa: Unai Emery has done a remarkable job at Aston Villa since he joined in 2022. He has brought about positive change for the club, teamwork in the squad, and hope for the fans. This season has shown remarkable results and a resurgence that may be one for the history books so far. Going from 16th place in week 6, up to 3rd place, a point behind City in Week 14 is what he is capable of doing.
The goal scoring leaders for Villa are almost evenly spread between Rogers, Malen, Buendia and Watkins and this is part of what makes them a contender. They have many options to score and it is what keeps the opponents on their toes. Their back line is also impressive with 4 clean sheets in their last 6 Premier League games. They are on an impressive current run of 8 straight wins across all competitions and sending a clear message to the other teams - their ambitions are not unfounded.
Chelsea: It seems just recently that Chelsea ownership changed hands from Russian oligarch Abramovich to the consortium led by American Todd Boehly and Clear Lake Capital. The club has since spent $1.4B on new players, mainly youngsters believing the investments will pay off in the long term. The pundits heavily criticized the spending in the early period of the new ownership, but now with Chelsea in 4th place, the pundit’s memories on the criticism has faded. It may be too early to declare the big investment a victory, but the results trend is Chelsea’s friend. In week 13, Maresca’s Chelsea played Arsenal to a very impressive 1-1 draw despite being a man down for the last 60 minutes. In a way, this showed incredible grit and character by the team, but the underlying problem may be discipline since they have already accumulated 6 red cards across all competitions and we are not even halfway through the season. They may well break the record for most red cards in a season across all competitions if disciplines issues are left unchecked. More importantly this issue could see their title chances slip.
From a player perspective, the 13 goals from Joao Pedro, Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernandes along with others are driving the attacking results despite missing their star Cole Palmer to injury for the last few weeks. The 18 year old Estevao is only just getting into his stride and should also be one to watch. If Chelsea is able to sustain their winning ways and bring their discipline issues under control they could be a contender. However, among the top 4 today, they have the least experience to sustain results through the brutal 38 week competition with the relatively young team they have. Their most recent week 14 loss to Leeds showed this weakness. They are clearly preparing for a bright long term future with their existing players even if this year’s title gets out of reach, and that cannot be argued.
What’s missing from this conversation about the top 4 are the current Premier League champions, Liverpool. While it’s difficult to write off such a high quality team vying for a repeat title, they need to right the ship after spending north of $500M and settle the locker room with the new players. This is their biggest current challenge if they are to get back to being serious contenders.
At the current time, I imagine Arteta, Guardiola, Emery and Maresca’s message to their respective teams is the timeless anthem from Journey, “Don’t stop believin’, hold on to that feelin’.” That is what makes the English Premier League the most competitive of all leagues, and that is what makes this a beautiful game.
Good breakdown! What is great to see is that Crystal Palace and Sunderland are that high up of the table. I am really interested to see if they can keep up this form. With that being said, I think the chase for the title is going to be good this season.